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Can we wait on Climate Change?

The pro-AGW crowd sounds almost like the home­opaths who state that sci­ence hasn’t yet ‘found’ all the mech­a­nisms required to explain how their magic water works.

I heard Greg Craven on a recent Point of Inquiry pod­cast give a seat-belt anal­ogy about the Cat­a­strophic Cli­mate Change (CCC) hypothesis.

It’s not bad.

He said that we don’t con­sider the unlike­li­hood of get­ting into a vio­lent car acci­dent before we put on a seat belt, we do it just in case.  He offers the case that all the dire events pre­dicted by CCC need to be stopped and/or pre­pared for yeeeears in advance.  You can’t just quickly snap your belt on as you fly off the cliff–by then it is prob­a­bly too late.

Where I dis­agree with Craven is that I think it’s more like an Insur­ance Pol­icy, than a seat belt.  We can imme­di­ately see the prac­ti­cal ben­e­fit vs cost ratio involved with a seat belt.  It’s a noOoOooo brainer.  With insur­ance, there are sev­eral pack­ages to choose from.  I can get the works, and pro­tect my car from ZEUS HIMSELF acci­den­tally crush­ing my car as he epi­cally bat­tles it out with CHRONOS on my city street.  It’ll prob­a­bly cost me half what my car is worth each year, but I’m sure some insur­ance rep some­where will agree to that.

I don’t have to pay some­one when I put on my seat­belt.  It’s free with a huge pay­off for use.  ZEUS ain’t walkin’ down my street any­time soon, so I doubt I’ll be going for Option Z.

Maybe that’s just it though. Pre­haps the prob­lem is that we’re only being offered one pack­age to com­bat it.

Typ­i­cally it’s a Car­bon Trade mar­ket of some sort, such as the con­tro­ver­sial and poten­tially econ­omy crush­ing “Cap and Trade”.  I hear CaT is a pretty expen­sive insur­ance pol­icy.  Maybe we should just con­tinue with Option A and con­tinue to sub­si­dize GOOD green rev­o­lu­tions in tech­nol­ogy, but still allow old ‘steam­punk’ tech­nol­ogy work until it’s bested.  OZ, I feel, sug­gests that we stop all sin­ful, dirty, car­bon machines imme­di­ately and suf­fer until we find a new grass or sun fed option.

Pur­vey­ors of the OZ move­ment seem to have some extremely urgent data that shows that we are in immi­nent threat of self destruction.

I would like to see it.

Because, really, if OZ becomes the gov­ern­ment, that just means we’re all opt­ing for OZ.  There are a lot of issues com­ing to light lately that seems to indi­cate that the like­li­hood of need­ing OZ is dimin­ish­ing.  Per­son­ally, I don’t know what to think as I am still inves­ti­gat­ing the actual sci­ence behind it all.

Lately I just get that feel­ing that we have a lot yet to learn both about the cli­mate, and those who think they know it.

Happy Sunny Skeplandia!

Happy Sunny Skeplandia!–Doesn’t exist…

We skep­tics alert the pub­lic all the time when we iden­tify a cer­tain fal­lacy in mar­ket­ing and debate.  We imag­ine that we are talk­ing to an equally minded demo­graphic, how­ever, and that they will accept our log­i­cally rea­soned argu­ments.  I am always con­fused by this strange place in which I live.  Every­thing tends to make so much sense, but many care noth­ing for it.  I used to inno­cently think that it was because some peo­ple had an eye for it, and oth­ers had their eyes on other things.  It turns out that many other stances on the eth­i­cal use of logic exist.  Many use logic for their own self­ish pur­poses.  I just don’t get what to do when I want to play fair, but the other party just wants to cheat and steal with every word he negotiates.

Been out lately?

Logic is a tool.  It can be used for truth or profit.

Just because an argu­ment is sound, does not make it valid. 

Lets face real­ity: this is not some occult secre­tive sci­en­tific the­ory, we all knew this pro­found fact when we all said our first lie.  We thought of a clever cover story, that fit the events con­ve­niently, and got away with it.  Most of us dab­bled in lying and found it to be gen­er­ally harm­ful in the long run, and I do believe that most of us don’t bother lying because it is not worth the trou­ble.  How­ever, in all arts, there are some trou­ble mak­ers that become expert liars, and have found a way to lie for profit.

These peo­ple do not care about the truth, they just want to jus­tify what they’re selling.

Ad Hominems, Argu­ing from Igno­rance, False Cor­re­la­tions, etc… are cer­tainly dan­ger­ous in the wrong hands. Fal­lac­ies tend to dis­guise them­selves as clever thought, and many peo­ple are both deceiv­ing oth­ers and them­selves by their use.

The worst: some­times they don’t even real­ize that they’re being log­i­cally rude; they don’t even know they’re com­mit­ting fallacies.

Many peo­ple, rich and poor, suf­fer from poor reasoning.

Or so it seems? Can fal­lac­ies be prof­itable? For exam­ple, remem­ber that bully who called you names? He prof­ited greatly by this intim­i­da­tion, and heck, you may have even given him your lunch money or done his homework.

Imag­ine want­ing to be illog­i­cal, for the sake of cer­tain gains?

How do you rea­son with some­one who is rea­son­able, but chooses to fight unrea­son­ably?  Some­one who is actively and con­sciously com­mit­ting fal­lac­ies because he knows that the gen­eral pub­lic will fall for them?  Every time you call this per­son out on his Ad Hoc, or his Argu­ment from Pop­u­lar­ity, he strate­gi­cally repeats it, pre­tend­ing that he doesn’t under­stand you.

To weaker philoso­phers, they may bulk to the con­fi­dence of this per­son, and con­tem­plate if what they just rea­soned to him was non­sen­si­cal (even though it was actu­ally a good point!).

Should one per­sist?  Do not accept his red her­rings and keep on the path.  If this naughty logi­cian feels trapped in admit­ting he is being absurd, then he may get angry.  Indeed, if he is caught deal­ing unfairly, he is both shown to be a poor philoso­pher for being caught, and a poor busi­ness­man who needs to scam to get ahead.  For the sake of pride, he will stub­bornly per­sist in his fan­tasy, and the con­ver­sa­tion will nat­u­rally break down.

So how is it done?  How shall we rea­son in an unrea­son­able world?