How Long is Forever?
Which one is the real you?
I think there is nothing more frustrating as contemplating the feasibility of infinity. It can be argued that if spontaneous human combustion does indeed exist, that it is likely caused by the unfortunate person dwelling on an infinite regress for too long. At least, that’s my hunch! I should be clear from the start and explain that I do not consider infinity itself to be a fallacious concept, but that it is often a sign that there may be something very wrong with the reasoning at play.
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Don’t jump to conclusions…
Cause and effect is not always this obvious…
In science and statistics it is a common and dire warning that “correlation does not imply causation”. Everyone understands the concept of cause and effect: hit the billiard balls and watch them roll away in the opposite direction you hit them. However, sometimes the correlation is not so obvious… sometimes a correlation doesn’t really exist but is only perceived to. Seeing should not always be believing, studying is important. Before jumping to a conclusion, make sure you have accumulated and considered as much data as possible. When it seems that a link exists, it is certainly worth looking into. Unfortunately, many are eager to make a discovery so they might discover a link that is only loosely connected, or not even connected at all (some other force is causing the effect that is not being considered). Coincidences exist, and just because it would be convenient for two events to be connected, that does not necessitate it to be so.
Category: Fallacy of the Weak
Tags: autism, cause, coke, correlation, diet, effect, fallacy, h1n1, pearl jam, psychic, swine flu, twins, vaccine, weight loss 37 Comments
Beware of Slippery Slopes!
The wind howls around you as the gusts envelope your body. The view is spectacular–yet terrifying–as you inch your way along the cliff face, away from danger. If only you were paying more attention when you adventured off the path. It seemed like a good idea, you wanted a piece of unexplored beauty to call your own. Alas, this led to a series of events which culminated in you hanging on to your wits, 200 feet above the ground. If you make it through this you will know better next time. You will warn everyone to never leave the predestined paths. Even if it seems like a good idea, one thing will lead to another and another and BAM! Windy cliff!
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If the Afghanistan war was about spreading freedom, there would be elections. There have been recent elections in Afghanistan. Thus, the Afghanistan war is spreading freedom.
Well, what if the votes are not freely counted? What if freedom is not the goal, and the elections are merely a side show? What if the elections really are an indication that freedom is growing in Afghanistan?
The above argument assumes too much and provides too little for such a definite conclusion. It cherry picks a fact and tries to prove an assumption. There would not be anything wrong with this, if it was presented as a hypothesis, or if it were one of many reasons. With freedom being such a complex concept, it’s rather simplistic to think that you can prove it’s existence with just one sign of it.
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I beg your question!
A wise Creator would not create life only to restrict it to a chained and miserable existence. There’s seems no point to sorrow and pain; joy and comfort is always what we lowly creatures aspire to. Since this is our aspiration, and since this is what our Creator would no doubt want as well, these three aspirations (life, liberty, and happiness) are therefore our rights.
I basically said we have certain rights, showed that these rights are something desirable, and then concluded that these are our rights because they are desirable. I didn’t really prove anything, I simply said we have rights because we want to have these rights. When determining what our rights are (necessities), we risk injecting notions that we want to be true, so it is dangerous reasoning to assume too much just because it complements our desires.
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It was a dark, and ignorant night…
There was something strange in the air that night. The air was unusually cold, and the doors were swinging on their own, and, to the best of my knowledge, all the windows were closed. I had no idea what was happening, but I know it wasn’t natural. It is an old house, and back in the 1950’s a whole family was murdered here. I think it is pretty obvious that my house is haunted—-
—Wait, wait, wait… I basically just said, “I have no idea what happened, therefore this happened”.
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