Arguing from Ignorance

Arguing from Ignorance

This may be one of the most ironic fallacies, as the claimant spends half the time pleading ignorance, then spends the rest explaining (with an air of authority) something they have just shown to be unknown. There is nothing wrong with this as long as it can be tested properly. The problem is that, until such tests take place, what the claimant bares is merely opinion. Of course, it wouldn't be ignorance if we had data about the situation.

Affirming the Consequent

Affirming the Consequent

We were all kids once, so we all reasoned like this as well. Until we learn that it can rain anywhere in the world, this argument makes sense to the ignorant. Affirming the Consequent assumes that reality is simple and can be relied upon forwards and backwards. It's typically fallacious to reason this way as most definitions have multiple meanings and can apply to a myriad of situations. It is rare to come across a sound argument that affirms the consequent.

The Slippery Slope

The Slippery Slope

The problem with a Slippery Slope is that it is naive. It does not account for the vastness of possibilities that are permitted in the universe. To tell your friends not to wander off the path because you will end up on a windy cliff is not a likely consequent, even though it is a possibility. Just because it happened to you is merely anecdotal and is only one morsel of data, hardly enough to base a conclusion off of. Sure, if thousands of people per year needed to be rescued from that cliff

The Infinite Regress

The Infinite Regress

Infinity exists, at least analytically. In reality, however, infinity is only an assumption. Assumptions are dangerous, they are leaps of logic, and thus potentially quite fallacious.

Correlation is not Causation

Correlation is not Causation

In science and statistics it is a common and dire warning that "correlation does not imply causation". Everyone understands the concept of cause and effect: hit the billiard balls and watch them roll away in the opposite direction you hit them. However, sometimes the correlation is not so obvious... sometimes a correlation doesn't really exist but is only perceived to. Seeing should not always be believing, studying is important. Before jumping to a conclusion, make sure you have accumulated


Can we wait on Climate Change?

The pro-AGW crowd sounds almost like the home­opaths who state that sci­ence hasn’t yet ‘found’ all the mech­a­nisms required to explain how their magic water works.

I heard Greg Craven on a recent Point of Inquiry pod­cast give a seat-belt anal­ogy about the Cat­a­strophic Cli­mate Change (CCC) hypothesis.

It’s not bad.

He said that we don’t con­sider the unlike­li­hood of get­ting into a vio­lent car acci­dent before we put on a seat belt, we do it just in case.  He offers the case that all the dire events pre­dicted by CCC need to be stopped and/or pre­pared for yeeeears in advance.  You can’t just quickly snap your belt on as you fly off the cliff–by then it is prob­a­bly too late.

Where I dis­agree with Craven is that I think it’s more like an Insur­ance Pol­icy, than a seat belt.  We can imme­di­ately see the prac­ti­cal ben­e­fit vs cost ratio involved with a seat belt.  It’s a noOoOooo brainer.  With insur­ance, there are sev­eral pack­ages to choose from.  I can get the works, and pro­tect my car from ZEUS HIMSELF acci­den­tally crush­ing my car as he epi­cally bat­tles it out with CHRONOS on my city street.  It’ll prob­a­bly cost me half what my car is worth each year, but I’m sure some insur­ance rep some­where will agree to that.

I don’t have to pay some­one when I put on my seat­belt.  It’s free with a huge pay­off for use.  ZEUS ain’t walkin’ down my street any­time soon, so I doubt I’ll be going for Option Z.

Maybe that’s just it though. Pre­haps the prob­lem is that we’re only being offered one pack­age to com­bat it.

Typ­i­cally it’s a Car­bon Trade mar­ket of some sort, such as the con­tro­ver­sial and poten­tially econ­omy crush­ing “Cap and Trade”.  I hear CaT is a pretty expen­sive insur­ance pol­icy.  Maybe we should just con­tinue with Option A and con­tinue to sub­si­dize GOOD green rev­o­lu­tions in tech­nol­ogy, but still allow old ‘steam­punk’ tech­nol­ogy work until it’s bested.  OZ, I feel, sug­gests that we stop all sin­ful, dirty, car­bon machines imme­di­ately and suf­fer until we find a new grass or sun fed option.

Pur­vey­ors of the OZ move­ment seem to have some extremely urgent data that shows that we are in immi­nent threat of self destruction.

I would like to see it.

Because, really, if OZ becomes the gov­ern­ment, that just means we’re all opt­ing for OZ.  There are a lot of issues com­ing to light lately that seems to indi­cate that the like­li­hood of need­ing OZ is dimin­ish­ing.  Per­son­ally, I don’t know what to think as I am still inves­ti­gat­ing the actual sci­ence behind it all.

Lately I just get that feel­ing that we have a lot yet to learn both about the cli­mate, and those who think they know it.

Happy Sunny Skeplandia!

Happy Sunny Skeplandia!–Doesn’t exist…

We skep­tics alert the pub­lic all the time when we iden­tify a cer­tain fal­lacy in mar­ket­ing and debate.  We imag­ine that we are talk­ing to an equally minded demo­graphic, how­ever, and that they will accept our log­i­cally rea­soned argu­ments.  I am always con­fused by this strange place in which I live.  Every­thing tends to make so much sense, but many care noth­ing for it.  I used to inno­cently think that it was because some peo­ple had an eye for it, and oth­ers had their eyes on other things.  It turns out that many other stances on the eth­i­cal use of logic exist.  Many use logic for their own self­ish pur­poses.  I just don’t get what to do when I want to play fair, but the other party just wants to cheat and steal with every word he negotiates.

Been out lately?

Logic is a tool.  It can be used for truth or profit.

Just because an argu­ment is sound, does not make it valid. 

Lets face real­ity: this is not some occult secre­tive sci­en­tific the­ory, we all knew this pro­found fact when we all said our first lie.  We thought of a clever cover story, that fit the events con­ve­niently, and got away with it.  Most of us dab­bled in lying and found it to be gen­er­ally harm­ful in the long run, and I do believe that most of us don’t bother lying because it is not worth the trou­ble.  How­ever, in all arts, there are some trou­ble mak­ers that become expert liars, and have found a way to lie for profit.

These peo­ple do not care about the truth, they just want to jus­tify what they’re selling.

Ad Hominems, Argu­ing from Igno­rance, False Cor­re­la­tions, etc… are cer­tainly dan­ger­ous in the wrong hands. Fal­lac­ies tend to dis­guise them­selves as clever thought, and many peo­ple are both deceiv­ing oth­ers and them­selves by their use.

The worst: some­times they don’t even real­ize that they’re being log­i­cally rude; they don’t even know they’re com­mit­ting fallacies.

Many peo­ple, rich and poor, suf­fer from poor reasoning.

Or so it seems? Can fal­lac­ies be prof­itable? For exam­ple, remem­ber that bully who called you names? He prof­ited greatly by this intim­i­da­tion, and heck, you may have even given him your lunch money or done his homework.

Imag­ine want­ing to be illog­i­cal, for the sake of cer­tain gains?

How do you rea­son with some­one who is rea­son­able, but chooses to fight unrea­son­ably?  Some­one who is actively and con­sciously com­mit­ting fal­lac­ies because he knows that the gen­eral pub­lic will fall for them?  Every time you call this per­son out on his Ad Hoc, or his Argu­ment from Pop­u­lar­ity, he strate­gi­cally repeats it, pre­tend­ing that he doesn’t under­stand you.

To weaker philoso­phers, they may bulk to the con­fi­dence of this per­son, and con­tem­plate if what they just rea­soned to him was non­sen­si­cal (even though it was actu­ally a good point!).

Should one per­sist?  Do not accept his red her­rings and keep on the path.  If this naughty logi­cian feels trapped in admit­ting he is being absurd, then he may get angry.  Indeed, if he is caught deal­ing unfairly, he is both shown to be a poor philoso­pher for being caught, and a poor busi­ness­man who needs to scam to get ahead.  For the sake of pride, he will stub­bornly per­sist in his fan­tasy, and the con­ver­sa­tion will nat­u­rally break down.

So how is it done?  How shall we rea­son in an unrea­son­able world?

The Infinite Regress

How Long is Forever?

Which one is the real you?

Which one is the real you?

I think there is noth­ing more frus­trat­ing as con­tem­plat­ing the fea­si­bil­ity of infinity. It can be argued that if spon­ta­neous human com­bus­tion does indeed exist, that it is likely caused by the unfor­tu­nate per­son dwelling on an infi­nite regress for too long.  At least, that’s my hunch!  I should be clear from the start and explain that I do not con­sider infin­ity itself to be a fal­la­cious con­cept, but that it is often a sign that there may be some­thing very wrong with the rea­son­ing at play.

more…

Correlation is not Causation

Don’t jump to conclusions…

Cause and effect is not always this obvious...

Cause and effect is not always this obvious…

In sci­ence and sta­tis­tics it is a com­mon and dire warn­ing that “cor­re­la­tion does not imply cau­sa­tion”.  Every­one under­stands the con­cept of cause and effect: hit the bil­liard balls and watch them roll away in the oppo­site direc­tion you hit them.  How­ever, some­times the cor­re­la­tion is not so obvi­ous… some­times a cor­re­la­tion doesn’t really exist but is only per­ceived to.  See­ing should not always be believ­ing, study­ing is impor­tant.  Before jump­ing to a con­clu­sion, make sure you have accu­mu­lated and con­sid­ered as much data as pos­si­ble.  When it seems that a link exists, it is cer­tainly worth look­ing into.  Unfor­tu­nately, many are eager to make a dis­cov­ery so they might dis­cover a link that is only loosely con­nected, or not even con­nected at all (some other force is caus­ing the effect that is not being con­sid­ered).  Coin­ci­dences exist, and just because it would be con­ve­nient for two events to be con­nected, that does not neces­si­tate it to be so.

more…

The Slippery Slope

Hmm, not a good sign to miss!

Beware of Slip­pery Slopes!

The wind howls around you as the gusts enve­lope your body.  The view is spectacular–yet terrifying–as you inch your way along the cliff face, away from dan­ger.  If only you were pay­ing more atten­tion when you adven­tured off the path.  It seemed like a good idea, you wanted a piece of unex­plored beauty to call your own.  Alas, this led to a series of events which cul­mi­nated in you hang­ing on to your wits, 200 feet above the ground.  If you make it through this you will know bet­ter next time.  You will warn every­one to never leave the pre­des­tined paths.  Even if it seems like a good idea, one thing will lead to another and another and BAM!  Windy cliff!

more…

Affirming the Consequent

Afghan-election

If the Afghanistan war was about spread­ing free­dom, there would be elec­tions. There have been recent elec­tions in Afghanistan. Thus, the Afghanistan war is spread­ing freedom.

Well, what if the votes are not freely counted?  What if free­dom is not the goal, and the elec­tions are merely a side show?  What if the elec­tions really are an indi­ca­tion that free­dom is grow­ing in Afghanistan?

The above argu­ment assumes too much and pro­vides too lit­tle for such a def­i­nite con­clu­sion.  It cherry picks a fact and tries to prove an assump­tion.  There would not be any­thing wrong with this, if it was pre­sented as a hypoth­e­sis, or if it were one of many rea­sons.  With free­dom being such a com­plex con­cept, it’s rather sim­plis­tic to think that you can prove it’s exis­tence with just one sign of it.

more…

Begging the Question

I beg your question!

A wise Cre­ator would not cre­ate life only to restrict it to a chained and mis­er­able exis­tence.  There’s seems no point to sor­row and pain; joy and com­fort is always what we lowly crea­tures aspire to.  Since this is our aspi­ra­tion, and since this is what our Cre­ator would no doubt want as well, these three aspi­ra­tions (life, lib­erty, and hap­pi­ness) are there­fore our rights.

I basi­cally said we have cer­tain rights, showed that these rights are some­thing desir­able, and then con­cluded that these are our rights because they are desir­able.  I didn’t really prove any­thing, I sim­ply said we have rights because we want to have these rights. When deter­min­ing what our rights are (neces­si­ties), we risk inject­ing notions that we want to be true, so it is dan­ger­ous rea­son­ing to assume too much just because it com­ple­ments our desires.

more…

Arguing from Ignorance

It was a dark, and igno­rant night…

There was some­thing strange in the air that night.  The air was unusu­ally cold, and the doors were swing­ing on their own, and, to the best of my knowl­edge, all the win­dows were closed.  I had no idea what was hap­pen­ing, but I know it wasn’t nat­ural.  It is an old house, and back in the 1950’s a whole fam­ily was mur­dered here.  I think it is pretty obvi­ous that my house is haunted—-

Wait, wait, wait… I basi­cally just said, “I have no idea what hap­pened, there­fore this happened”.

more…

The Appeal to Popularity

The Truth is NOT a Pop­u­lar­ity Contest!

We see it every­where.  In almost every adver­tise­ment we learn how all our friends and neigh­bors have used this new gad­get or lotion, and so should you!  McDon­alds has bil­lions and bil­lions served, it can’t be that bad for you, right?  The iPhone’s App Store has a bil­lion down­loads, that must mean I should get an iPhone too!  Islam is the fastest grow­ing reli­gion on Earth, appar­ently, so that means it’s true!  Alter­na­tive “Nat­ural” Med­i­cine is a bil­lion dol­lar indus­try, they must be on to something!

more…